Alison Layfield, VP of Product Development at ePost Global, shares real-time data on how US e-commerce sellers are adapting to the European Union's €3 customs duty in a new STAT Trade Times analysis.
The volume story nobody expected
When the EU eliminated the €150 duty exemption on low-value imports and replaced it with a €3 customs duty, predictions ranged from volume collapses to massive market disruption. So far, that's not what we're seeing.
"It is still early, only around 45 days in, but so far we are not seeing any significant negative impact on volume," Alison says. US merchants continue selling into Europe. However, what has changed is how shipments move and who pays for them.
The real problem: DDU shipments are getting refused
While volumes held steady, shipments started coming back. Under DDU (Delivery Duty Unpaid), customers pay customs fees at delivery. That friction point is now a breaking point.
Merchants are reporting returned shipments due to postal operators who can't deliver them or customers refuse to pay surprise fees remains unclear. This further validates how DDU is no longer a viable model.
Alison explains the immediate shift: "We already have customers that have either switched to DDP or are working on making that change, and we are hearing more about it as merchants see shipments being returned. So we do expect to see an even bigger shift from DDU to DDP."
The hidden advantage: HS6 grouping reduces duty stacking
At ePost Global, we can group identical products with the same HS6 (Harmonized System) classification, avoiding a separate €3 charge for each line item. As a result, a shipment with three identical items pays one €3 duty, not three.
Merchants who route through generic postal carriers lack this capability. Their "three identical items" still trigger three separate €3 charges. The cost difference is immediate and visible to customers.
This distinction between logistics providers just became strategically important.
The November 1 shift: A handling fee that compounds the problem
On November 1, 2026, the EU will introduce an additional Union handling fee to cover customs processing. Industry expectations center around €2.
Stack that on top of the existing €3 duty without proper HS6 grouping, and merchants are looking at €10 per customer instead of €5. For merchants still using DDU in November, this becomes unsustainable.
Alison's warning is direct: "If someone is saying, 'I don't want to switch to DDP,' and they're not taking into consideration that grouping, come November 1, it's going to have a huge impact on their customers."
The postal operator squeeze
Postal operators face an unprecedented challenge: IOSS (Value-Added Tax collection) is DDP. The new customs duty may still be DDU. A single shipment now requires two different payment mechanisms from the same customer.
Denmark and Germany are already rejecting DDU shipments. Other national postal networks are expected to follow.
DDP is becoming the baseline, not a premium option
DDP has become non-negotiable for merchants that want deliveries to arrive without returned shipments or customer friction. Under DDP, merchants incorporate customs charges into checkout. Customers know the total cost before purchase. There are no surprises at delivery.
"For the customer experience, we believe it will be much better if small and medium-sized companies make the shift from DDU to DDP," Alison says. "The consumer has no surprises because everything is paid at checkout."
EU warehousing rush is not happening
Despite the added cost of cross-border movement, most US merchants are not establishing European fulfillment operations. Only a handful of ePost customers have discussed the possibility.
The current €3 regime is temporary with a broader EU customs overhaul is expected in 2028. Therefore, building European warehouses to avoid a temporary cost structure doesn't make financial sense.
Instead, logistics providers are doing what matters: strengthening customs expertise, carrier networks, and data technology to help merchants navigate the existing rules efficiently.
